Aid today, but not tomorrow — a good decision

Not counting Monday's showers, Red Deer has received 205 mm of rain since the first of May, according to the federal weather office. Believe it or not, that's only about 15 mm more than the long-term average to this date.

But as I watched the Monday morning downpour shoot out of my eaves troughs, and considered the province's latest pronouncements on life in a floodplain, I have to say, it gives one pause.

Obviously, I haven't made a real land survey here, but I conclude that since the last two 100-year floods of the Red Deer River didn't reach my house, my street is not likely to show up on the province's new map of places where people shouldn't build houses.

But across the river from me, at the Lions Campground and the businesses along Riverside Drive? I'm not so sure.

Over the weekend, premier Alison Redford announced there would be disaster aid for the thousands of families and businesses still assessing their losses from this summer's flooding in Calgary and High River regions.

Aid today but not tomorrow, if people decide to build again on land prone to flooding.

Further, Redford said changes are in the works to the province's municipal act that will forbid any new development on land their maps show are at risk in the 100-year floods to come.

Details of both announcements have yet to be worked out, but my bet is that the cost of this will match the billion dollars the province has set aside so far for direct disaster aid — and probably more.

Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi has already pointed out that his city is built at the confluence of two rivers. Fully 10 per cent of Calgary's population needed evacuation in this flood. A much higher proportion of neighbouring High River needed the same.

Not to mention that a large tract of Alberta's most valuable downtown business district was kept empty for days on end, while the basements of office towers and underground parking garages were pumped and inspected.

Not all of the area that experienced flooding this year appears in the red or pink zones of the province's map of places where development will not be allowed, or where, if people rebuild, they do so at their own risk (with a warning placed on their property titles to alert future buyers of the risk).

But when the developed areas in these zones is added up — one assumes all over the province — I can't imagine how a billion dollars of could possibly cover the loss in land value.

Redford says her government wants to be fair to all Albertans. I doubt there's anyone left in the province who hasn't had a conversation with friends about taxpayers covering the flood risk for people who want to live on scenic riverfront property, or for sharing the risk in their homeowner insurance plans.

But for the landowners directly affected, I imagine perspective differs.

Therefor, I think this recent announcement must be viewed as leadership. The province has obviously learned some lessons about how governments should act in cases of natural disaster.

The delays and confusion that followed the devastation of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans provided a textbook for developed countries around the world on the value of being prepared, and the value of putting a good disaster plan into action quickly.

But planning for disaster has to include amelioration before the disaster occurs, where ever possible.

There will be large up-front costs in forbidding new development in regions prone to flooding, and warning homeowners of the real risks of living in these areas.

The best outcome we can hope for in the decades to come will be that people will complain how money was spent and restrictive regulations were created in anticipation of a disaster that is extremely unlikely to happen (again).

It's easy to approve of this plan, for people whose homes and possessions aren't already located on a spot of a provincial map coloured red. People whose personal wealth isn't tied up in a plot of ground that likely cannot be sold in the future.

The details will be revealed when cities and towns built along rivers release their own sections of the province's maps.

How many 100-year floods can one see in a lifetime? How many 100-year floods does it take to recognize nature has an unpredictable power over everything you've worked to build in a lifetime?