On Sunday, Progressive Conservative
leader Jim Prentice became Alberta's 15th premier since
confederation. In all the years since 1905, Alberta's premiers have
led just four different parties. At each succession, the losing party
became a trivia question.
Two of those parties, the United
Farmers and Social Credit no longer exist or are no longer on
anyone's radar. The other non-Tory party to lead Alberta was the
first of them all — the Liberals —whose dynasty lasted from 1905
to 1921.
The vast majority of Albertans today
were not even alive or in the province when Peter Lougheed became the
first Tory premier of Alberta. Prentice will be only the sixth Tory
leader to sit in premier's chair in the 43 years the party has ruled
the province.
Here are a few interesting numbers
around premier Prentice's rise to power:
1 — The most crucial number of all.
Prentice won on the first ballot, as expected. Had there been a
second ballot required (which would have been held on Sept. 20), it
would have produced a candidate who was a lot of people's second
choice for premier. That lack of overt support, even in victory,
would probably have doomed the party in the next general election.
23,000 — The rounded number of votes
cast in the ballot Saturday. A new-fangled online voting system was
used, which was supposed to make it easier for Albertans anywhere to
vote in the leadership race. But it was subject to glitches, delays
and breakdowns. Allison Redford won her leadership in a race where
59,000 votes were cast. For the campaign that elected Ed Stelmach,
97,000 were cast. Make of that what you will.
14 — The minimum age for someone to
take out a party membership and vote for the leader. We'll never know
how many parents paid for a party membership and had their teenage
children vote the family line, but that part is interesting.
6 — The number of months you had to
be living in the province to participate in the vote. It would also
be interesting to know how many people bought a party membership and
voted, who were not even in Alberta when Redford was premier.
20 —The number of digits in a PIN
code your party membership gave you, to enter into your computer,
tablet or smart phone in order to vote. Most banking PINs are shorter
than that. The PIN also included the numbers in your postal code —
but not the letters — which was the cause of a whole lot of
rejected online sign-ins to vote. Whatever IT firm created this
system will not likely be re-hired for future work of this sort.
$1.8 million — The dollar figure
Prentice raised to finance his campaign, outpacing by far the
combined tallies of the other two candidates. Money is important in
politics, not just for what it buys, but for what it represents. The
money goes to the winner almost all the time, because the money goes
to the candidate perceived to become the winner.
50 — The number of elected MLAs who
supported Prentice in this race. Right now there are 58 Tories in the
legislature.
Smaller — The promised size of the
next cabinet. How having fewer people hold the ultimate reins of
decision-making improves transparency, we have yet to see, but a
smaller cabinet is easier to control. Dave Hancock's cabinet had 17
members; Redford's had 18.
2016 — The next Alberta general
election. Since 2011, elections must be held between March 1 and May
31 of the fourth year since the previous election. I wouldn't expect
a snap election call before that. That leaves a maximum of 21 months
for Prentice to preserve the Tory dynasty.
29 — The current percentage voter
support for the Tory party, released in a Leger poll just prior to
the leadership vote. Wildrose holds a 33-point support level. Given
the vagaries of polling accuracy — especially recently — that
puts the two parties pretty well even. Maybe.
Had I not read in a news report that
Prentice is considered a “red” Tory, I wouldn't have suspected
it. Two of the members of his transition team have high-level insider
experience in oilsands boardrooms. And Prentice himself has been
tight with decidedly “not red” Tory primer minister Stephen
Harper.
But Prentice did break ranks with the
federal party as an MP on a free vote on gay marriage, withstanding
extreme pressure within the party, and even threats of violence from
the public.
That's the kind of grit he'll need, if
he is to turn an over-privileged dynastic party into something humble
enough to win our votes in the next election.
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