Thursday, 18 August 2016

On balance, ranked ballots our best chance for best electoral reform

A recent Canadian Press story effectively debunks the theory that if the Liberal government imposes a ranked-ballot system for national elections, they will somehow guarantee themselves power in perpetuity.

Next week, as hearings into electoral reform resume, Conservative supporters will resume using stats gathered from voting patterns in past elections as proof of election results in future elections, if the current first-past-the-post system were dropped. Which, according to the experts quoted in the CP article, is extremely unlikely.

Brian Tanguay of Wilfred Laurier University, York University's Dennis Pilon and Ken Carty of the University of British Columbia all agree that if you change balloting systems, you also change voting patterns. So it becomes impossible to predict future performance by studying obsolete past performances.

Far more likely, they say, a ranked-ballot voting system will produce governments that more closely resemble the collective will of voters, without the complications and confusion of calculating winners and losers through a proportional representation system. And without having to change electoral boundaries or increase the number of MPs already crowding Parliament.

Under the current system, both national and provincial parties regularly gain local riding victories with substantially less than majority support from voters. More, the victors nationally and provincially regularly manage to assemble majority legislatures far in excess of the expressed support of voters.

The fear of this happening leads people to pull their votes away from candidates and parties that they actually support, in favour of candidates and parties they merely hope can defeat a candidate or party they despise.

Even worse, parties with platforms that many voters would like to support do not attract viable candidates in many ridings, because (a Donald Trump charge here) the system is rigged against them. A minority party has little hope of advancing its agenda in rock-ribbed ridings that have always voted a certain way — despite those ribs being much thinner than advertised.

In Canada, this is called democracy. It is anything but. First-past-the-post balloting cannot possibly produce democratically-elected governments that reflect the collective will of the voters in our diverse, interconnected society.

With a ranked-ballot system, voters with a minority view can much more effectively register support for their views at the ballot box. They are not “wasting” their vote in a hopeless cause, because other parties will need to change their platforms slightly to attract these voters' second choice or third choice.

Not every voter can be happy with the outcome of every race — that's just life. But every voter can at least be assured their votes were even counted.

That's a vast improvement over the current system, where winners are frequently declared minutes after the polls close, and with a mere fraction of the votes even counted. That is the greatest outrage of all, under our current system.

Electoral reform is a big deal and a huge undertaking for our rookie federal government. But they should not let the perfect become the enemy of the good.

A ranked-ballot system is easy to inaugurate, easy to understand, does not require Ottawa to house dozens more MPs, nor a wholesale re-drawing of electoral maps.

It does not guarantee victories for any particular party, nor even guarantee majority governments. But it does guarantee that every MP must get a majority of votes in their ridings, and it does force parties that hope to govern a diverse society like Canada to better consider voters outside their core support.

That looks a whole lot more like democracy than the system we've got now. It's also a whole lot more achievable than a messy constitutional battle and complex national referendum that would most likely result in no reform at all.


Follow Greg Neiman's blog at Readersadvocate.blogspot.ca

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