There
are a lot of people around the world who are demanding that somebody “does something” to punish the Syrian armed forces and their leader
president Bashar Assad for using sarin nerve gas against civilians in
its second largest city, Damascus.
Damascus
is the seat of the country's war-torn government. The evidence we in
the West are seeing is that Assad's forces used nerve gas against women and
children in his own capital, with perhaps as many as 1,500
casualties.
Syria
is in the midst of a civil war that has killed more than 100,000
people and left more than 6 million either displaced inside the
country, or in vast tented refugee camps outside the country.
And
nobody who believes in democracy would want the leaders of either
side of this conflict to win.
But
there are people in Canada who are disappointed in the lukewarm
reactions of our own federal government in condemning this crime, and
who are embarrassed that the official response of promising “all
aid short of help” is being used once again.
The
question that bothers me is that if Canada were to join a U.S.-led
military intervention in Syria (don't bother hoping there will be one
led by the United Nations), just who would be be shooting at?
Brutal
(and possibly insane) dictator Assad and his forces, or brutal (and
possibly insane) religious extremists who would supplant him? There
does not appear to be a rational, moderate leadership option in the
wings with much hope of producing a stable, peaceful democracy.
So
who are the criminals we should be taking out?
Assad
cannot be trusted to give you an honest weather report, but I put
some credence in his statement that once outside military powers
intervene in Syria, this whole thing is able to spin into more evil
than we want to think about.
Assad
has two allies: Russia and Lebanon. Russia keeps the UN from doing
anything useful; Lebanon keeps the world from doing anything at all.
As
of Tuesday, there were about 720,000 Syrians in refugee camps in
Lebanon. You can get your family into Lebanon on one tank of gas,
from Damascus.
How
many of them might be capable of exporting their civil war outside
Syria, and how many of them might end up becoming helpless targets of
Lebanese military?
Just
south of Lebanon lies Israel. Israel is beefing up its missile
defences in the event some nutbar to the north decides to go their
direction to avenge any U.S. incursion into Syria.
What
happens after that is a shopping list of bad consequences.
That,
I suspect, is why president Barak Obama overruled his advisors on
Monday, and said he wanted to consult Congress — and thereby, the
American public — before using military power to “downgrade”
Assad's ability to launch chemical weapons again.
Congress
is coming into election mode right now. There must be enough Viet Nam
vets still around to warn against putting military boots in Syria
today.
“We
should have this debate,” Obama said Monday. Yes, perhaps we
should.
I
wouldn't want to predict what the situation in Syria would be, by the
time Americans have had their debate.
The
number of dead already exceeds 100,000, and international news
reports tell us the country is bleeding itself of women and children
fleeing the violence.
About
a third of Syria's total population has already fled the country.
I
agree with the critics that it is distasteful to see despotic leaders
use genocidal-scale attacks against their own people. But the
extremists waiting to take over when Assad is finally gone are far
from gentle by comparison.
Perhaps,
then, Obama does have the right proposal: bomb the bejeebers out of
Assad's missile delivery systems, and assure the populace that the
world does feel for their plight, while leaving it to the Syrian
people to decide the outcome of this civil war.
That
would seem rational. But rationality, like truth, was one of the
first casualties in this conflict.
Canada
has no capability of intervening in Syria to disable Assad's chemical
weapons, and it is rather unseemly for us to suggest someone else do
it for us.
Until
we know exactly who we want to shoot at, and for how long, it's best
we just not shoot at all. As distressing as that may be, while the
videos play, showing us the innocent dead.
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