Thursday, 14 January 2016

Is Canada's own Donald Trump making a move into politics?

Canadian tycoon Kevin O'Leary's offer to invest a million bucks into Alberta's energy industry — but only if newly-elected premier Rachel Notley stepped down — was pure theatre. Did he really expect anyone to take this seriously? 

So what's with the cross-national bombast?

Well, it appears O'Leary has political ambitions. Talking with CBC News, the network that hired him on Dragon's Den and The Lang & O'Leary Exchange, O'Leary said he wouldn't mind taking a page or two from Donald Trump's latest bestseller: How to Make Friends, Influence People and Become the Greatest Leader, Ever.

He's toying with the idea of running for the federal Conservative Party leadership. “I thought at some point, someone is going to say to me, if you can be such a critic, why don't you do better? Why don't you try it?” he told CBC. “I thought to myself, hmmm, maybe I should.”

Note that he didn't claim — as politicians often do — that there's a groundswell of demand that he lead the Conservative Party. But you have to start somewhere; maybe the support will follow the idea, as it has in the U.S. for Mr. Trump.

Attacking a popular premier only recently-elected is a strange way to build a national consensus, but the Trump/O'Leary way seems up to the challenge.

Canada's previous Tory leader, Stephen Harper was known for his cool relationships with provincial leaders. Danny Williams of Newfoundland and Labrador, Kathleen Wynne in Ontario come to mind. Things did not begin well with Harper's relationship with Notley, either, but that didn't have time to mature.

All in all, how did that work for him?

But never mind, O'Leary is new to politics, a place where you can't buy every agreement, and where simply walking away when you can't isn't an option.

Everyone knows it's difficult to govern — all the more so when one has inherited a financial crisis. Moving forward requires compromises to build consensus for decisions that will require sacrifice.

Bombast, disrespect and blame do not build consensus.

O'Leary says in Alberta he would “put his cards on the table” with the current review on provincial royalties. Considering that industry is being closely consulted during the review process, that promises are clear not to make any sudden changes, and that an Alberta perspective on what's fair (including acknowledging current problems within the energy industry) ought to be transparent enough, until the final report is made public.

O'Leary said he would cut corporate taxes in Alberta, not raise them to rough parity to the tax regimes of other provinces. He would “cut a deal” with business companies to maintain jobs (are we talking tax-subsidized wages in the oil patch here?) and he would run deficit budgets to do it.

A perception of government getting too friendly with business is partly what got the NDP elected in the first place.

But governments do steal opposition ideas, though some make more sense than others.

The Wildrose claims authorship of this week's wage freeze for about 7,000 non-unionized government workers (including highly-paid trade representatives, board chairs and deputy ministers). They were due to get a 2.5-per-cent wage hike in April on salaries that range between $110,000 and $287,000 a year. Grid advancement will also be banned, saving taxpayers about $57 million over two years, according to an article in the Calgary Herald.

But that idea came long before the birth of Wildrose, with former PC governments freezing wages, unfreezing them months later, then promising to re-freeze them, claiming strong leadership each time, in each direction.

Like our current recession, this freeze will also thaw. In the meantime, we need to gather people together, not pull them apart. Canada doesn't need a Donald Trump, or any would-be politician that seeks to create enemies.

We need a healthy debate on what comes next, and that will include some passionate argument. But Canada has three brand-new governments in it now, with two more — Saskatchewan and Manitoba — to come in 2016.

We need to respect democracy enough to give them a chance to bring their consensus into practice. In our current business cycle, that's going to require some sacrifices.

O'Leary says Rachel Notley isn't qualified to “manage Canada's Number One resource.” If he meant the energy industry, managing that isn't her job. Besides, we're always being told our Number One resource is our people, not our tight gas and bitumen reserves.

One can't be sure, yet, if O'Leary is really serious, or just enjoying causing a little trouble along with a few headlines. As a businessman, he can stand or fall on his own. But as an aspiring political leader, he's short of the mark.

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